Who will win the federal election?

Who will win the federal election? By Chris Kenny.

We have been left with major parties going through identity crises. Shorten’s pedestrian campaign has attempted to argue an economically irrational agenda that is the antithesis of Hawke/Keating aspirational reform. Morrison’s energetic campaigning has tried to plot a centrist path back to the Coalition’s core values without upsetting the seething moderates and conservatives in his ranks.

The substance of the election pitches favours Morrison and the Coalition; they have secured the borders, lowered taxes, repaired the budget and kept the nation on a course of steady, if precarious, economic recovery.

Labor has a tax and spend agenda fraught with risk and a climate and energy policy that is so frightening the Labor Leader has stubbornly resisted any attempt to put a figure on its cost to consumers and the economy. For this reason of obfuscation and avoidance, Shorten has lost every week of the campaign. …

Still, such has been the vandalism inflicted on itself by the Coalition over the past few years that despite Labor’s mistakes and Morrison’s flawless advocacy, it is still expected to lose. I said in the first of these weekly assessments that Morrison needed to win every week to have any chance of winning. He has won each week, some more emphatically than others, and while he does have some chance still of pulling off a miracle victory, Labor remains favourite. …

Yet in the end, most of the blame will lie with the Coalition MPs whose job it was to implement their plans while maintaining a path of least resistance for voters. They chose instead to erect a series of mindless obstacles on the road to Coalition support.

Shorten has been clever enough to capitalise on this but as every day of the campaign has progressed, more and more people have become sceptical of his agenda. For Shorten and Labor, 6pm tomorrow night cannot come soon enough.

For the last decade in the West, electoral surprises — movements not picked up in the polls — have all been to the right. Whether this is because of the shy voter in the face of leftist bullying, or whether the polls are biased left, or both, is not clear. The polls are adamant that Labor will win, but close enough that there is some doubt.