Brexit Update: Cameron Failed to See it Coming, by Bob in the UK.

I did wonder if Cameron really thought that he would win the General Election in 2015 and this rather confirms my suspicion that it was a shock to him that he won. He stumbled badly after his win and never quite got his poise back.

He clearly failed to understand the strength of feeling against the EU, which was fired up by immigration and especially allowing in so many Asians and Africans who came from countries with Islamic rather than Christian backgrounds. He was a gambler and seemingly failed to see that winning only a 36% vote share to win the election was not a resounding vote of confidence in him. He needed to do more than just turn up at rallies in favour of Remain.

Interestingly, there are the first signs that countries in the EU are starting to worry that the Commission have cocked up the negotiations. Poland is speaking out and others are worried that this could turn into a major PR error by the EU with the Dutch supposedly getting excited behind the scenes. The Commission, of course, is urging unity.

It is still looks like a mess here, but Nigel Farage is planning for a second referendum and trying to become the leader of the new Brexit campaign. He is talking about forming a new party to lead it. Maybe the Tories are really going to split, but it always pays to be cautious about then Tories sticking together.

I am not NF’s biggest fan, but I think he is ahead of a number of people in identifying that the Commons will almost certainly stop a no deal Brexit and so to get one he almost has to support a second referendum, even if reluctantly. As long as the referendum has no deal Brexit as an option then I believe there is a reasonable chance that it will be supported by over 50%.

There is a bit of the Brits against the rest of Europe being played out now in the press and even the Guardian is beginning to think people could vote for no deal in a referendum. Most, but not all political commentators, believe that a no deal Brexit would be an electoral disaster for the government as serious shortages are really likely as the EU turns the screw on lorry movements into the UK.

It is a fascinating time to watch domestic politics, however, I might prefer to be sitting outside the UK rather than enjoying the hand to hand fighting at such close quarters.