Democrat mid-term gains were not the telling result many hoped for, by Cameron Stewart.
The most significant outcome of yesterday’s mid-term elections is that a giant Democrat blue wave failed to wash over America. …
The result shows many Democrats are misguided in thinking that Trump’s 2016 election win was an aberration and that he will be firmly rejected two years from now. If a national revulsion against Trump’s unique style of leadership exists, yesterday was the first and best chance for voters to show it.
It suggests that Trump’s brand of nationalistic populism is not a temporary fad that will pass quickly. Rather it is a movement that may outlast Trump and recast US politics for a generation. …
Result better than Obama’s or Clinton’s first midterm:
Bill Clinton lost 54 seats in 1994 and in 2010 Barack Obama lost a whopping 63 seats, the most in a mid-term since 1946. … Trump’s mid-term losses are fewer than both Clinton’s and Obama’s. …
What it means:
The bad news for the President is that losing the house means that he will be subjected to a series of congressional committee-initiated investigations.
Democrats are expected to launch a raft of inquiries into Trump’s conduct. This includes a likely fresh investigation into his links with Russia, as well as a probe into his personal finances, his business interests and his tax returns.
These investigations will generate constant headlines and sap the energy of the administration. …
But the good news for Trump is that maintaining Republican control of the Senate still gives him the ability to make key appointments, such as Supreme Court judges.
It also guarantees that any attempt by the Democrat-controlled house to impeach Trump would be blocked in the Republican-run Senate, ensuring he remains President. …
Trump did it his way:
Trump wrote his own playbook for these mid-terms. Most presidents would have campaigned primarily on the unusually strong US economy, with its almost 50-year low in unemployment, 3 per cent growth, and rising wages and job numbers.
But the President chose to promote illegal immigration above all other issues, hoping to stoke the concerns of his base and energise them to vote in the same way that he did so successfully in 2016. …
Demographics:
According to AP VoteCast, women voted Democrat by a hefty 56 per cent to 38 per cent margin while men voted Republicans by a 48 per cent to 46 per cent margin.
hat-tip Stephen Neil
