Newspoll: Pain from leadership coup revealed as vote slides nationwide

Newspoll: Pain from leadership coup revealed as vote slides nationwide, by Simon Benson.

Scott Morrison faces an epic challenge to restore confidence in his shattered government, with new polling analysis showing a collapse in support for the Coalition in every mainland state and across every demographic group since the leadership spill.

Analysis of four Newspolls since the August 24 leadership spill casts a bleak picture for the government six months out from an expected May 2019 election.

The data, based on the two-party preferred swings since the 2016 election, reveals the Coalition faces the prospect of losing 25 seats across the nation, eight held by current frontbenchers.

Looks like the Morrison Government will serve out its six months until the next election in about May 2019. The Government will not be able to introduce any significant partisan legislation during that six months, because of the hung nature of the House of Representatives — so it will be executive government only.

Then Shorten will be elected in 2019. With the help of friendly spin from the media and a competent bureaucracy to implement their agenda, Labor will probably then govern for two terms, possibly more, if they don’t bow to their extremists and try anything too divisive or economically retarded. Barring major changes to the political landscape, don’t expect the conservatives in Australia to be in power again until 2025 or so.

Possible major changes? Economic dislocation when the debt bubble collapses is the most likely. Raising interests will cause asset markets to collapse eventually — stocks and houses down by 50% perhaps. Not raising interest rates could stave that off for several more years, at the cost of more economic stagnation, a generation of young people unable to get into the housing market, and a host of elders unable to earn interest and enough retirement income. The damage is already done; now we are just dealing with how to distribute the pain.