The Arctic storm dubbed the “Beast from the East” set record temperatures across much of Europe on Monday and brought a rare snowstorm to Rome, paralyzing the city and giving its residents an unusual chance to ski, sled and build snowmen in its famous parks and piazzas.
Plus record cold in North America, the first snowfalls in northern Africa for decades, an unusually mild summer here in Western Australia, … Perhaps the global cooling predicted by temperature-solar history is almost upon us. It’s not showing up in the global temperature record yet, but global temperature has dropped to the point of mostly erasing the gains from the El Nino years of 2016 and 2017.
From my science website, the prediction made in 2014:
Global temperatures will come off the current plateau into a sustained and significant cooling, beginning 2017 or maybe as late as 2021. The cooling will be about 0.3 °C in the 2020s, taking the planet back to the global temperature that prevailed in the 1980s. This was signaled (though not caused) by a fall in underlying solar radiation starting in 2004, one of the three largest falls since 1610 when records started. There is a delay of one sunspot cycle, currently 13 years (2004+13 = 2017).
2017 is the start of the fall. Solar radiation fell from 2004 to 2009, and temperatures should follow about 13 years later. No, carbon dioxide has relatively little effect — there is a mistake in all the climate models.
hat-tip Scott of the Pacific