Would world under Hillary Clinton be any better? By James Macintosh in the WSJ.
A year on from the inauguration of Donald Trump as president, Democrats are if anything more upset than they were then. Investors, not so much. …
So, where would markets be if Clinton, not Trump, were in charge of the presidential Twitter account? A few things are clear.
- There wouldn’t have been a huge corporate tax cut.
- Small business confidence, based on hopes of less red tape, wouldn’t have leapt to the highest level since Ronald Reagan’s first term as president.
- Banks wouldn’t be expecting an easy ride from regulators.
- And there would be a lot less fiery rhetoric from the White House.
But let’s look at the details. Many of the market-moving changes since the US presidential election would have been just the same.
Most important among them: the global economic rebound started before voters picked Trump, and would surely have continued. That rebound has driven up stocks and bond yields worldwide, and the US is only in the middle of the performance table. From the day before the election, Italy, France, Germany and emerging markets have beaten US stocks in US dollar terms, including dividends, while Canada lags well behind. …
Clinton wouldn’t have focused on tax cuts and deregulation. The corporate tax cuts will boost earnings by about a tenth, supporting stock prices and boosting returns from US investments. Gains from deregulation are hard to quantify but should help small businesses and banks the most. …
But it would be wrong to give Trump much credit for the faster economy last year, and it is many years too early to know if his policies will provide a lasting boost.