Cerberus 2.0 predicts with scientific precision the disappearance of the Dutch population

Cerberus 2.0 predicts with scientific precision the disappearance of the Dutch population, by Gefira.

A change in demographic trends takes 50 years before they become plainly visible. The decline in fertility in the sixties started to become visible after 50 years. Cerberus, our population simulator, shows with scientific precision that the replacement of the European society has started, and within 50 years it will be visible and irreversible.

Since the [1970s], the Western societies have not produced enough offspring to keep their communities growing. The fertility rate (i.e. the average number of children per woman) is far below 2.1. i.e. the level of replacement. A population with a higher rate will grow while a population with a lower rate will shrink. As it is, the Western and Japanese societies will begin to implode 40 years from the moment their fertility rate dropped, and this demographic winter, as this phenomenon is sometimes called, will affect the world more profoundly than the climate change, so politicians and investors should take notice. …

To get an insight into the European situation the Gefira team developed Cerberus 2.0, a software tool that, using copious amounts of demographic data provided by the Central Bureau of Statistics, simulates the population development.

In the sixties, the Netherlands had an emigration surplus, i.e. more people left the country than arrived, while in the seventies the so-called mass immigration set in and the process was reversed.

A couple of years of immigration has no visible effect, which is why many immigration advocates argue that 50.000 arrivals against a population of 14 million, (i.e. 0.3 percent) is negligible. This is only true if it is a one-time event. If it happens year after year, it brings about a structural change of a population. …

In 2060 50% of the growth in the Netherlands will be non-Western newborns and immigrants, and around 2070 50% of all newborns are non-native Dutch. From there it takes a further 25 years before the natives are a minority. …

Since the demographic decline is observable in all Western countries, we are in for Europeans being gradually replaced by peoples from Africa or South Asia. We are now at the eleventh hour and if we do not put an immediate stop to all immigration, the Dutch society will vanish into thin air.

hat-tip byrmol