An Analysis of Trump’s First 100 Days, by a reader.
In 2016 there were five different forces supporting Trump, with conflicting agendas and interests:
- The mainstream Beltway GOP: Ryan etc. Lukewarm.
- The military and veterans — strong on defense and deterrence by force. No more silly small wars, stop wasting life and money.
- Small business and entrepreneurs — less regulation and lower taxes
- The rustbelt Democrats — in need of healthcare and jobs, but not so interested in lower taxes.
- The tea party activists — smaller state and no compromises.
My conclusion is that after the first 100 days, the Beltway GOP has got the upper hand. The debacle with Obamacare made the tea party and people like Bannon look silly and stupid, kind of a Hurricane Katharina event.
So the White House is now filled up at the top level with people such as Kushner, Cohn, Mnuchin and Tillerson. They are the establishment. Kushner and Cohn have always been a part of the Democratic party swamp in NYC.
Goldman is in control at the important levers of the economy now. The swamp is flowering as it was under Bush 43. Many rustbelt workers and small business owners will feel betrayed.
The stockmarket is at a record level, and the top and the upper middle class makes money. The people at the low end only feel the effect of inflation and zero-interest policy eating on their retirement and savings accounts.
My fear is that Cohn and co. will drive the stockmarket hype, until the market crashes, as happened in 2008. Defense will got more money, but most will be wasted as usual.
I think within a year we will get a market crash because of a geopolitical event. It can be a nuke in Europe or US or Australia. Trump will be a one period president, but why does he care? He will end up with the name recognition and the benefits of an ex-president, and he is already seventy.
You will see a left wing turn in the USA if the Democrats can find a more modern version of Sanders, like Macron perhaps. I hope I’m wrong, but I wouldn’t bet against it.
One of the great things about a Trump Presidency is its unpredictability. Unlike Obama, Trump is not following the predictable PC and Democrat/media/Deep-state script.