World Oil Production

World Oil Production, by David Archibald.

Most oil producing countries are in well-established long term decline or plateau at best. …

Saudi Arabia used to be the world’s swing producer. That role has been taken by the shale drillers of the United States.

Russian production has held up well and, combined with fields in development, it is assumed that Russian production remains in plateau. …

Iranian production peaked in 1974 at 6.1 million barrels per day as the Shah tried to overtake Saudi production. It is assumed that Iranian production is geologically limited. Iraqi production continues rising despite the civil war in that country. Currently at over 4.0 million barrels per day, Iraq’s geological endowment should see production continuing to rise towards 9.0 million barrels per day. …

Asia Pacific production projection — Australia at the bottom

Adding all those production profiles results in production in 2022 that is five million barrels per day lower than world production, per BP’s statistics, in 2015.  That could be offset by a faster rise in Iraqi production combined with increased shale oil production.

From all of the above comes an unoriginal conclusion: US shale oil is likely to buffer the oil price for at least the next five years.

Read it all for the details and more glorious graphs.