Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment

Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment, by Jonathon Easley.

Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry-shattering embarrassment at the hands of Donald Trump on Tuesday night.

Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, had long said the polls were biased against him. His claims — dismissed and mocked by the experts — turned out to be true. …

And the battleground data was just as biased against Trump. …

White working-class voters — the silent majority that Trump said was being underestimated by pollsters — swarmed for him on Election Day, particularly in the Rust Belt states, and helped him beat the polls. …

Pollster John Zogby believes that many in the industry weighted their polls too heavily in favor of Democrats, pointing to polls that had an 8- to 9-point advantage for the party, when it should have been in the 4- to 5-point range, he said.

It’s a claim that Trump made throughout the process.

Bad assumptions are the cause of most modeling failures.