The Swing is On: Trump Winning Big. It appears at this stage that Trump will win the lot — Presidency, House, and Senate.
3:30 pm Sydney time.
Live Forecast (NYT), new President: Trump >95% likely to win
Live Forecast (NYT), US House: Republicans >95% likely to win
Live Forecast (NYT), US Senate: Republicans >95% likely to win
Live betting odds. Clinton 10.00, Trump 1.03.
Chance of winning the US Presidency, according to the polling and counting data as assessed by the New York Times.
US Dow Futures: Down 780 points.
Mexican Peso: Down 10%
Popular vote: Trump ahead by 1.0% in reported votes, although the New York Times estimates Clinton will win it by 1%. (California, heavily Democrat, has yet to be counted, but the NYT projections will assume similar voting patterns to 2012 and will be overestimating the Democrat vote.) Given that Clinton led in the poll averages by 1 to 2%, this implies a Brexit-style hidden vote of 1- 3%, similar to Brexit.
Tune in to your local mainstream media coverage to see lots of glum faces. No smirking anymore for today, it appears.
Like Brexit, this opens up a new political world. The global elite has been defeated in this battle too. This is even bigger, because the US is so much bigger and more influential than Britain. Reminds me of the election of Thatcher in 1979 then Reagan in 1980.
It took eight years from the financial crisis in 2008 for the Tea Party to win power. It was formed by the middle class in response to the huge and unfair bail outs to the establishment in the GFC, but has grown into an anti-establishment and anti-corruption party in general. Right from the outset the media and other parts of the establishment derided it unfairly as “racist”, “sexist” and all the other prerogatives that used to mean something before the progressives started using them. In the past year the Tea Party has defeated the Republican establishment in the Republican primary, and now the Democrats in the general.
What are Trump’s policies? Will the bureaucracy, media, and courts allow him to do anything? Is the age of the global bureaucrat living off massive taxpayer dollars, flooding the native populations of western countries with third world and Muslim immigrants, coming to an end? Perhaps not immediately, but the world has changed course.
Will it be like this?
Who will be first with a Downfall clip?
The prospect of four years of blogging about Clinton chicanery, and working our way through their myriad of lies and their fog of plausible deniability, is receding.