[W]ith huge variances in preference across demographics, one can easily “rig” a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another.
As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small “oversample” of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points.
Moreover, the pollsters don’t provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to “fact check” the bias … convenient.
“Oversampling” means to poll a higher proportion of people from a particular demographic than there are among the voting population, such as blacks or registered Democrats, to bias the poll.
Now, for all of you out there who still aren’t convinced that the polls are “adjusted”, we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to “manufacture” the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on “oversamples for polling” in order to “maximize what we get out of our media polling.”I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.