Are Polls Missing Covert Support for Trump?

Are Polls Missing Covert Support for Trump? By John Hinderaker.

Rasmussen investigated whether there is hidden support for Donald Trump that is not showing up in the polls: Twenty percent (20%) of both conservative and moderate voters are less likely to reveal their choice for president this year. Only 10% of liberals say the same.

So that provides some empirical support for the idea that there is a slim margin of Trump support that is not showing up in the polls. For what it is worth, I don’t believe it. The so-called “Bradley effect” has repeatedly failed to appear, and I am now convinced that it is a fiction.

On the other hand, polls in general, not just in the U.S. but around the world (Israel, the U.K.) have been unreliable in recent years. More often than not, they have erred in underestimating conservative turnout. So I think all of the polls should be viewed with considerable skepticism. But, is there a vast throng of Trump voters who are somehow hiding from pollsters? No, I don’t think so.

Here are the latest combined polls:

Real clear polls, 2 Sep 2016

Clinton is comfortably ahead overall in the polls — but so was Remain in Brexit.