Warmist Prediction Gone Wrong

Warmist Prediction Gone Wrong. Here is the famous article in the West Australian with Tim Flannery’s prediction for Perth in 2004:

Perth will become a ghost city within decades as rising global temperatures turn the Wheatbelt into a desert and drive species to the brink of extinction, a leading Australian scientist warns.

Australian palaeontologist and popular author Tim Flannery said Perth was a city on the edge – isolated, dependent on energy and declining water supplies and more likely to feel the effects of global warming because of its geographical position.

‘You’re going to suffer faster and harder than any other State in Australia,’ Dr Flannery said yesterday.

‘My hypothesis is Perth will become a ghost metropolis over the next few decades unless governments acknowledge that global warming is a reality.’

He said a global temperature rise of less than 1C last century had robbed the State of over half its annual rainfall run-off. Global temperature rises of up to 6C would transform Perth into an arid city unable to feed itself.

A 1C rise was enough to wipe out an estimated two-thirds of WA’s native flowering plants.

Photo courtesy of Andrew Bolt. The original article was here but can not longer be accessed, though most of the text is here.

Flannery - Perth will become a ghost city

A decade later and Perth seems to be doing fine. Global temperatures have scarcely risen since, according to the satellites that monitor the whole planet (except the poles) 24/7, year after year (without the bias due to thermometers at airports being hit with jet exhaust, etc., like the land thermometers the warmists prefer to quote):

Global temperature by satellites (UAH) from 2004 to 2016

By the way, if you are a sophisticated investor and want to bet against this paleontologist (hint: studies plants and animals, not hard science) and his buddies with their carbon dioxide theory, you will soon be able to do courtesy of the Cool Futures hedge fund being established right now.

More Flannery foolishness preserved for posterity here (“Sydney’s future eaten: the Flannery prophecy”). Still, the guy gets paid lots of taxpayer money, whereas I get paid none despite having figured out where the carbon dioxide theory is wrong. He must be doing something right.

Here is my hypothesis:

Global temperatures will come off the current plateau into a sustained and significant cooling, beginning 2017 or maybe as late as 2021. The cooling will be about 0.3 °C in the 2020s, taking the planet back to the global temperature that prevailed in the 1980s. This was signaled (though not caused) by a fall in underlying solar radiation starting in 2004, one of the three largest falls since 1610 when records started. There is a delay of one sunspot cycle, currently 13 years (2004+13 = 2017).