Risk of war between US and China is reaching crisis point, by Roger Boyles.

As long as there are supposedly rational arguments for shooting first, there is a risk, the risk inherent in all deterrence theory. And as long as there is ambiguity about the other side’s intentions there is the risk of an unintentional war. Accidental wars are actually quite rare — there was a catastrophic combination of events and misperceptions in August 1914 but the war was nonetheless ultimately the consequence of state policies. …

[The last near-miss was in] 1983, when the Kremlin convinced itself that Ronald Reagan was gunning for Moscow. … Declassified documents from that time suggest there was a real prospect of a pre-emptive war being triggered by a nervous Soviet leadership. …

The idea that China and the West have become so interdependent that armed conflict is off the table is no more than a lazy assumption. It doesn’t take into account the advances in military technology, the speed now required to make decisions in an escalating crisis, the fuzziness about political intentions. We have managed despite multiple flashpoints to avoid war with Russia and with China. That’s beginning to look more and more like a fluke.

hat-tip Stephen Neil