Australian Election: The Result so far

Australian Election: The Result so far. Counting stopped at 2 am Saturday night (Sydney time) and will not resume until Tuesday. According to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), who assigned the 150 seats on the basis of who is leading, the seat count is:

  • Labor:  72
  • Liberal/National:  66
  • Independent (Wilkie, McGowan): 2
  • Greens:  1
  • Katter:  1
  • Xenophons:  1
  • Not yet determined:  7

The “close” seats (presumably among the ones “not yet determined”!?) are Hindmarsh (ALP ahead by 0.48%), Forde (LNP ahead by 0.22%), Chisholm (ALP ahead by 0.04%), Gilmore (Liberal ahead by 0.46%), and Dunkley (Liberal ahead by 0.64%).

On two party preferred terms the swing away from the Liberal/National coalition and to Labor was 3.38%. The swing away from the Liberals was 3.67%, the swing to Labor was 1.97%, the swing to the Greens was 1.30%, the swing to the Nationals was 0.66%, and the swing away from the LNP (Qld) was 0.66%.

The ABC is calling it 65 to the L/NP, 67 to Labor, 5 to others, and 13 in doubt, of which they predict Labor will win six and the L/NP seven — suggesting Liberal 72 and Labor 73. The remainder probably lean 4 to 1 to 3 to 2 to Labor. Their commentary on what next happens is here.

A minority Labor government seems the most likely on a bland straightforward analysis at this stage, but further counting could change that.

The Senate vote is far from counted, because the outcome will rely heavily on preferences. Pauline Hanson has won a spot in Queensland, Darren Hinch is likely in Victoria, there will be two or three Nick Xenophon Teams senators from South Australia, and Jacqui Lambie will represent Tasmania.

Bob Day remains a chance if he gets preferences and David Leyonhjelm is struggling but can’t be ruled out. …

Hanson’s One Nation could hold the balance of power in the Senate with the party guaranteed one seat in Queensland and a chance to win a second in that state and polling strongly enough to be a chance of winning seats in NSW and Western Australia. …

The final make up of the Senate could take several weeks and the early estimates could change.