Is Brexit the End of the EU? by George Friedman.
The economic impact of the UK leaving the EU is minimal because the EU—not Britain—is the weak player. The EU is fighting with Poland over political changes… has criticized Hungary on human rights… is still engaged in the Greece disaster… has an emerging Italian banking crisis. Additionally, Finland is in grave economic trouble, and anti-EU parties are gaining strength in several member states.
The EU has so many internal issues they are hard to count. Its retaliation is the last thing Britain should fear. …
Democracy and immigration were the main factors:
The EU dictating the rules was the problem. It was a question of sovereignty. That the EU could make decisions that would change the character of Britain was not okay. …
Granted, there was a large vote for staying. The British media have been eager to point out that those who voted to leave were less educated, had lower incomes, and so on. They were also most likely to be affected by immigration.
The EU’s answer to Brexit was contained in a recent official statement.
They recognized that not everyone wants the same level of integration and will respect that. They are aware that many are discontent with the EU.
Institutions rarely die, they just wither away. The EU will be less ambitious about political union, and see how it goes. (Or will they adopt a crash-though or crash approach, as implied by the previous post?)