Brexit wins. Britain to leave the EU.
UPDATE: 11:15 am Sydney time: wow betting odds have flipped! In favour of exiting EU 1.58 In favour of remaining in EU 2.38. Last night leave was $8.10. The gold price just rose 3%.
UPDATE: 12:42 pm Sydney time: 1.10 for Brexit, 6.00 for leave. 50% of the vote counted, leave at 51.6%.
UPDATE: 1:55 pm: Sydney time: no bets allowed for Brexit, 34.00 for leave. 83% of the vote counted, leave at 51.6%.
UPDATE: 2:39 pm Sydney time: 93% of the vote counted, leave at 51.8%.
UPDATE: 4:28 pm Sydney time: 100% of the vote counted, leave at 51.9%. Winning margin 3.8%.
A reader comments:
What an amazing day…
– the little people find they actually have a voice
– the bookies completely wrong
– and gold taking off like a rocket.
If they pull it off it’s the first real fightback in Anglosphere…more to come
CRASH WARNING: By the way, the markets are likely to convulse soon, maybe when the main northern hemispheric markets open. The stock markets are being held up by central bank intervention, but that may be too fragile to keep them up as the financial world adapts to the new reality: the EU is in jeopardy, the Euro may be toast eventually, the EU is now a German dominated continental project and the Germans may not be able to keep it afloat, and so on. I think the probability of major market crashes in the next month is pretty good; actually they are pretty good today (Friday 23 June, northern hemisphere) even — the government manipulators will have their work cut out for them.
The financial markets were caught off guard by the Brexit result. They had priced in “remain” winning. A lot changes now. The world wide trend towards bureaucratic control by politically correct elites and a weakening of democracy has taken a major reversal, with Britain, as so often, leading the push towards greater accountability and power for the little guy.
Because a major world currency, the Euro, is imperiled, the old currency based on hard rocks rather than the new currencies is likely to look more appealing in a relative sense. Maybe IOUs, central bank stewardship, and negative interest rates aren’t the way forward. Expect the gold price to rise over the next few months. Gold is up 7% today, though short term reactions are volatile. The world’s main website for getting gold prices is melting down — unavailable, presumably due to overload.
Disclosure: I run a small business called GoldNerds that analyses information for subscribers about all the gold mining stocks on the ASX. Most gold mining companies were barely making money a few months ago, but a small increase in the price of gold means a large increase in their profit margin. Gold stocks doubled in the last six months, and are currently surging right now.
Another reader (an ex-Brit, probably feeling a bit giddy) sends this in (from Richard II, Act 2, Shakespeare):
This royal throne of kings, this scepter’d isle,
This earth of majesty, this seat of Mars,
This other Eden, demi-paradise,
This fortress built by Nature for herself
Against infection and the hand of war,
This happy breed of men, this little world,
This precious stone set in the silver sea,
Which serves it in the office of a wall,
Or as a moat defensive to a house,
Against the envy of less happier lands,
This blessed plot, this earth, this realm, this England
From The Telegraph: ‘It was all about immigration’
Ben Farmer speaks to activists in Lancaster about the key issues that swung the campaign to leave. For the defeated Remain campaigners in Lancaster, there is no doubt about the campaign’s most powerful issue. Traditionally strong Labour working class estates strongly rejected the EU because of fears over immigration and jobs.
James Groves, referendum agent for the In campaign, said: “We are a very diverse district and in the Lancaster town part of it, a liberal university town, every single district voted to remain. Over the river in Morecambe and Lunesdale, pretty much every urban ward voted to leave. There’s no doubt that the big swing was in wards which are solid Labour.