EU Referendum: Massive swing to Brexit – with just 12 days to go, by Andrew Grice.
The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points).
These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead.
Now the tables have turned.
Support for political correctness and all its manifestations, which includes big government and rule-by-elite in its many forms, is brittle — because it is based on bullying. Basically the western populations are so afraid of social opprobrium and being called nasty names that they do as they are told.
But once group momentum or a competing social hierarchy (hello Boris Johnson and Donald Trump) say it is ok to ignore those names and to move in a certain secretly desired direction, many people pluck up the courage to reveal what they really prefer. Or maybe the Brexit arguments are simply getting through the media at last, now that there is so much focus on the issue.
The one crumb of comfort for the Remain camp is that when people were asked to predict the referendum result, the average figures were 52 per cent for Remain and 48 per cent for Leave. This “wisdom of the crowd” polling proved accurate during Ireland’s referendum on gay marriage last year.
“Everyone knows” how strong the elite forces are, so they expect them to win.
Polling experts say the result is still too close to call, and that there has been a late swing to the “status quo” option in previous referendums, including the one on Scottish independence in 2014. They also point out that telephone polls consistently give Remain a higher rating than online surveys.