ICM BREXIT POLL: A seismic shift in favour of Leave just happened

ICM BREXIT POLL: A seismic shift in favour of Leave just happened, by Adam Payne.

ICM’s latest EU referendum phone poll [of over 1,000 adults] conducted for The Guardian newspaper shows that there was an incredible 14-point swing in favour of Britain leaving the 28-nation bloc since the research firm last surveyed public opinion earlier this month.

This means that the Leave campaign has gone from trailing Remain by 10 points in mid-May (45 / 55%) to enjoying a four-point lead at the end of the month (52 / 48%).

Wow. Unusual for polls to change that fast, but maybe the zeitgeist is turning.

This is a hugely significant development for two major reasons.

Firstly, because such a huge swing in public opinion over such a short space of time is unprecedented.

Secondly, because up until now, the results of pretty much every opinion poll conducted over the phone showed leads for Remain ranging from steady to very commanding.

In fact, it was only polls conducted online that were giving any sort of hope to those campaigning for a Brexit over the last few weeks.

UPDATE: Betting agencies were paying $5 on Brexit last weekend now $3.76.

hat-tip Stephen Neil, Matthew