Fewer than one in five voters think Bill Shorten will win the election, yet around half intend to give his party either their first or second preference, according to the final Fairfax-Ipsos poll on the eve of the election.
The contradiction points to a looming dead heat that has lifted the potential for Saturday’s election to deliver either a shock Labor win, a narrow Coalition victory, or a hung Parliament with no side commanding a majority in the House of Representatives.
A massive 27 per cent of voters remain intent on supporting Greens and other crossbench parties and independents, as support for the major parties threatens to erode further.
Trump pulls into lead in latest Rasmussen poll, by Rasmussen Reports.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 43% of the vote, while Clinton earns 39%. Twelve percent (12%) still like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. …
Last week at this time, it was Clinton 44%, Trump 39%. This is Trump’s highest level of support in Rasmussen Reports’ matchups with Clinton since last October. His support has been hovering around the 40% mark since April, but it remains to be seen whether he’s just having a good week or this actually represents a real move forward among voters.
Boris Johnson announces he will not run for Prime Minister, by Laura Hughes.
Boris Johnson pulls out of Conservative leadership battle. Gove announces he will run for Prime Minister. Theresa May reaches out to eurosceptics as she announces bid. [Johnson] calls for ‘sensible, moderate One Nation Conservative approach,’ says Government must tackle income inequality [and that it is] vital to bring together everyone from Remain and Leave sides.
A handful of Tory MPs reacted with disbelief as news that Mr Johnson would not be seeking the leadership filtered through …
Shame. He was a brilliant and interesting speaker at times, likeable and funny.
And now Mr Gove has destroyed Boris Johnson, writes James Kirkup.
By suggesting ever so politely, that Mr Johnson cannot provide real leadership or build a united team, Mr Gove went for his former ally’s jugular.
The idea that affable Boris is actually divisive, selfish and unreliable is Mr Johnson’s biggest weakness in this contest.
UPDATE: Steven Neil suspects that the real story is Johnson is too right wing for the rotten Tory Party and can now wait for Britain’s Angela Merkel, Theresa May, to lead the party towards collapse. He will then be in a position to pick up the pieces. The bottom line is that UKIP’s work is only just beginning — treason by the elites continues regardless of the referendum result.
The great Conservative renewal is now underway, by James Forsyth.
The Tory party is in a deeply emotional state. … Post-referendum, Remain and Leave Tory MPs still meet in separate groups. Some think this indicates that the leadership fight could become the most divisive in recent history. …
In the coming days, Boris will come under pressure to set out his vision for post-Brexit Britain. I understand that he and Michael Gove have three principles. First, they want democratic control over immigration policy — a rejection of the EU principle of free movement of people. Second, they no longer want the UK to be subject to the European Court of Justice. Third, they want access to — but not membership of — the single market. …
Tory pragmatists, including several Remain ministers I’ve spoken to, acknowledge that [Boris Johnson] goes a long way to neutralising Ukip as a threat to the Tories. It would be perilous for them to select someone who had campaigned against Brexit as their leader because Farage and co could claim that referendum voters had been betrayed. They would shout that it was all an establishment stitch-up and that people needed to vote Ukip to make a proper Brexit happen. …
A staple of [Boris’] referendum stump speech was that the ‘EU is a corporate stitch-up’ contributing to the growing pay gap between CEOs and workers. As one of Boris’s closest allies puts it: ‘We need a government that understands this: in the last 15 years if you had capital you made out like a bandit. If you had to rely on your own labour, you didn’t.’ … Another pillar of a Johnson government would be social mobility. …
At the same time, the Labour party is in meltdown: it is almost impossible to see how the dispute between Jeremy Corbyn and the bulk of the parliamentary Labour party can be resolved.
hat-tip Stephen Neil
Paul Weston on the dangers of Islam for England and the West. If you have 6 minutes, this is a top-class and well-spoken rant. This will spread fast.
The Vision of the Anointed: Self-Congratulation as a Basis for Social Policy. This 1996 book by Thomas Sowell has a stellar reputation across the policy spectrum for its insights into the modern elite and political correctness. A classic. Highly recommended if you want a serious read.
Sowell presents a devastating critique of the mind-set behind the failed social policies of the past thirty years. Sowell sees what has happened during that time not as a series of isolated mistakes but as a logical consequence of a tainted vision whose defects have led to crises in education, crime, and family dynamics, and to other social pathologies. In this book, he describes how elites—the anointed—have replaced facts and rational thinking with rhetorical assertions, thereby altering the course of our social policy.
While “the anointed” favor explanations that exempt individuals from personal responsibility and seek painless solutions, those with the “tragic vision” see policies as trade-offs.
One of the sad signs of our times is that we have demonized those who produce, subsidized those who refuse to produce, and canonized those who complain.
To believe in personal responsibility would be to destroy the whole special role of the anointed, whose vision casts them in the role of rescuers of people treated unfairly by “society.”
…the very commonness of common sense makes it unlikely to have any appeal to the anointed. How can they be wiser and nobler than everyone else while agreeing with everyone else?
Among the many other questions raised by the nebulous concept of “greed” is why it is a term applied almost exclusively to those who want to earn more money or to keep what they have already earned—never to those wanting to take other people’s money in taxes or to those wishing to live on the largesse dispensed from such taxation. No amount of taxation is ever described as “greed” on the part of government or the clientele of government.
One of the first things taught in introductory statistics textbooks is that correlation is not causation. It is also one of the first things forgotten.
. . ideology. . . is an instrument of power; a defense mechanism against information; a pretext for eluding moral constraints in doing or approving evil with a clean conscience; and finally, a way of banning the criterion of experience, that is, of completely eliminating or indefinitely postponing the pragmatic criteria of success and failure. —Jean-François Revel
Only in the light of this agenda does it make sense that so-called “sex education” should be advocated to take place throughout the school years—from kindergarten to college—when it could not possibly take that much time to teach basic biological or medical information about sex. What takes that long is a constant indoctrination in new attitudes.
Systemic processes tend to reward people for making decisions that turn out to be right—creating great resentment among the anointed, who feel themselves entitled to rewards for being articulate, politically active, and morally fervent.
There cannot be a law-abiding society if no one knows in advance what law they are to abide by, but must wait for judges to create ex post facto legal rulings based on “evolving standards” rather than known rules.
The staunchest conservatives advocate a range of changes which differ in specifics, rather than in number or magnitude, from the changes advocated by those considered liberal…change, as such, is simply not a controversial issue. Yet a common practice among the anointed is to declare themselves emphatically, piously, and defiantly in favor of ‘change.’ Thus those who oppose their particular changes are depicted as being against change in general. It is as if opponents of the equation 2+2=7 were depicted as being against mathematics. Such a tactic might, however, be more politically effective than trying to defend the equation on its own merits.
Spoiled College Grad Demands New Dress Code at Job, Gets the Boot, by Tom Knighton.
Junior was at his internship, and he wanted the company to have a more lax dress code. Plus, they noticed one of the regular staff wearing shoes that weren’t in line with the standard dress code, and that just wasn’t right. So, this individual got together with his fellow interns and wrote up a proposal for an alternate dress code (hmm … ) accompanied with a petition (whoops!) and sent it on.
Hilarity ensued: “The next day, all of us who signed the petition were called into a meeting where we thought our proposal would be discussed. Instead, we were informed that due to our “unprofessional” behavior, we were being let go from our internships. We were told to hand in our ID badges and to gather our things and leave the property ASAP.
We were shocked. The proposal was written professionally like examples I have learned about in school, and our arguments were thought out and well-reasoned. We weren’t even given a chance to discuss it. The worst part is that just before the meeting ended, one of the managers told us that the worker who was allowed to disobey the dress code was a former soldier who lost her leg and was therefore given permission to wear whatever kind of shoes she could walk in. You can’t even tell, and if we had known about this we would have factored it into our argument.”
The reality is that colleges — the educational institutions that are theoretically supposed to prepare these kids for the real world — did these students a disservice by treating every petition or pet cause as valid, allowing the inmates to run the asylum. When the students hit the real world, WHAM!
Firing the whole group of you was a pretty extreme reaction, but I can understand why they were highly annoyed.
Y’all were pretty out of line. You were interns there — basically guests for the summer. Their rules are their rules. This is like being a houseguest and presenting your host with a signed petition (!) to change their rules about cleaning up after yourself. You just don’t have the standing to do that.
The bullying tactics worked so well at university — why not in the corporate world? PC meets reality.
Europe has been the central question of English politics for most of my nearly five decades of life. Throughout that time, it has consistently cut across conventional Left-Right lines, as it did in the vote last week. From our earliest involvement in Europe, figures such as Enoch Powell and then Roger Scruton made arguments against the E.U. based on notions of national sovereignty, history, and culture. On the Left, those like the late Tony Benn, doyen of unreconstructed socialists, pointed continually to the lack of democratic accountability of E.U. institutions. Both Left and Right Eurosceptics also raised repeated questions about administrative waste and corruption.
And behind it all was the obvious fact that the British had never voted for the Europe we now have. We had voted for little more than a free-trade zone. What we have is a legislative and administrative behemoth that aspires to be a transnational state. This Europe has never had a popular mandate—a point that has reinforced feelings of resentment and impotence as it has advanced across people’s lives like some giant, bureaucratic glacier.
The political part of the EU is illegitimate. The governed never consented. As for impregnating the EU lands with Muslims … that’s rape, isn’t it?
The demographics of the English part of the referendum were predictable. Those who have done well out of Europe—mainly the London metro-elite—tended to vote Remain. …such people benefit from globalization: For example, it gives them access to cheap and readily available foreign labor, to fancy designer goods, and to the professional freedom that comes from open markets and open borders.
Those who find the effects of globalization intimidating, who feel that their jobs and wages are threatened by free movement of labor and capital, and whose local ways of life are eroded by mass immigration, tended to vote Leave.
That makes sense. People usually vote their economic self interest.
hat-tip Stephen Neil
Top 14 Countries Whose Women Have The Largest Natural Breasts In The World, by Rebecca Martinson.
Almost 400,000 women from around the globe were measured for the study, with Caucasian Americans coming in with the highest breast volume measuring in at larger than a D-cup. Even non-Caucasian Americans still beat out most other countries, ranking in at third place with around a C-cup….
[R]esearchers found that obesity did not play a large part in the relative size of breasts, with the average breast volume “found to be large regardless of body weight, with even athletic and slim women being large-breasted.”
From the The Journal of Female Health Sciences:
It has been shown that young women who come to the United States as exchange students have a very high incidence of mental problems related to their body image and self-esteem. In-depth interviews of the affected exchange students have revealed that one of the key reasons for the problems is that they feel anxiety, when they realize that their breasts are so substantially smaller in size than the breasts of U.S females.
What Brexit market disaster? by Joanne Nova.
For five days headlines have told us the markets are being “Pounded”, with “Turmoil”, like a “Wild Ride” with “bloodletting“. I thought I’d graph the horror of the last week on the FTSE100, DAX, the CAC40 and the Euronext. Naturally big-government fans in the media have no interest in overselling the disaster that is Brexit.
See the link for more graphs. Last night the UK’s FTSE 100 surged 3.6% to close higher than it was just prior to the referendum.
The British Pound is at a historic low (luckily the fall hasn’t quite hit the 2008 level). British exporters must be loving this. …
Shh. Banks are the biggest losers: … “Germany’s Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are down by between 11.5% and 12% (having recouped around half of their losses at the European opening). In France, Societe Generale is the biggest loser, down 19%, followed by BNP Paribas -16% and Credit Agricole -12.1%. In Italy, seven of the bottom eight losers are banks, down by between 17% and 20.9%. The only thing keeping Lloyds Banking Group off the bottom of the FTSE 100 table is the fact that the U.K. has a lot of listed homebuilders, who have been hit even harder. — Fortune, June 24th
In the Brexit aftermath the Big Banks are getting into trouble. Most mainstream journalists don’t seem to want to highlight the banker-pain. Maybe it’s not the right message: “Stay IN the EU and Save the Banks”
Federal election 2016: TV ad doctor is political activist, by Sharri Markson.
The doctor who fronts the ACTU- funded Medicare television advertisement saying he is not a member of a political party has been a left-wing political activist for 40 years.
Drummoyne Medical Centre’s Robert Marr, who appears in the advertisement claiming there will be healthcare cuts under the Turnbull government, has a long history of political campaigning, including calling for John Howard to be investigated by the International Criminal Court for sending Australian troops to Iraq, lobbying against the Coalition in the 1993 federal election and arguing against private health insurance.
Standards of truth obviously coming second behind the PC crew’s need to fuel the narrative. Deceptive, lawyerly wordsmithing is so typical of them.
Despite the fact Britain has voted in favour of leaving the EU, this is still the start of a long process before the country officially untangles from the network of institutions in Brussels.
The barmy regulations include:
1. Ban on curvy bananas and crooked cucumbers. … A 1994 EU regulation specified that bananas must be ‘free from abnormal curvature.’ ... EU rules also governed the shape of many other fruits and vegetables — cucumbers, for example, needed to be almost perfectly straight.
2. Incandescent lightbulbs. … Following the EU’s ban on incandescent light-bulbs, many people were reported to have suffered epileptic fits from the flickering, supposedly eco-friendly fluorescent bulbs.
3. Vacuum cleaners. From September 1, 2014, companies were prohibited from manufacturing or importing any vacuum cleaners above the 1,600-watt limit as part of a drive to reduce domestic electricity use.
4. Drinking water does not prevent dehydration. … EU authorities passed a law which claimed scientists had found no evidence to suggest drinking water stopped dehydration. Manufacturers of bottled water were prohibited from labelling products with claims that would suggest consumption would fight dehydration.
5. ‘Diabetics’ banned from driving. Diabetes UK said that the DVLA did not differentiate between daytime and night-time episodes of hypoglycaemia, meaning that some people with diabetes are losing their driving licence unnecessarily.
6. It is illegal to eat your pet horse.
hat-tip Barry Corke
Andrew Forrest in ‘blood’ gibe at Greens over welfare payments, by Brad Thompson.
Mining billionaire Andrew Forrest has launched a stinging attack on the Greens and others who oppose his radical reforms to welfare payments as the measures show signs of improving lives in remote communities.
Mr Forrest said his critics would be left with blood on their hands if they resisted action to protect vulnerable children.
His outburst came after a heartbreaking meeting with two school-age Aboriginal girls with $200-a-day drug addictions.
Sensible left fighting with the silly left:
Mr Forrest said the Greens, including WA senator Rachel Siewert, refused to consider measures welcomed by those living in vulnerable communities.
Senator Siewert, who clashed with Mr Forrest in Senate committee hearings and has raised doubts about the effectiveness of welfare control measures, declined to comment.
Businesses that ask a job applicant about his or her criminal history during the hiring process could be fined and forced to pay the applicant up to $500 under a new law being considered by city leaders. … Employers could also be hit with a $500 fine if they don’t cooperate with city investigators following a complaint.
Criminals and ex-criminals overwhelmingly vote left anyway, so there seems little need to shore up this part of the PC vote. Yet another move by the hi-lo alliance of the PC elite and their voters against the middle class.
Game of States, by Steve Sailer.
“Britain today receives more immigrants in a single year than it did in the entire period from 1066 to 1950,” as Benjamin Schwarz recently observed…
Wow. More immigrants now in each year than in nearly 900 years.
What has ruined the E.U. is the ideological momentum of elites. Now that the public has twigged to the fact that globalism is basically a scam to allow those who would do pretty well in life anyway to do even better, the globalists have doubled down on their claims to be justified by their more advanced morality of universalism.
It’s amazing how far the politically correct and elites have gotten by just yelling “racist” at people.
[T]he contemporary globalist ordering of the world (in comparison with the postwar nationalist structure) is very good for the people at the top, and perhaps for those at the bottom (although they are more used as virtue-signaling totems by the ruling class), while it exploits those in the middle. This predation is then rationalized by arguing that the victims, the typical citizens, deserve their fate because they are evil.
The EU is now Germany’s:
Progressivism is a facade for rule by the strongest. Nationalism is still the way the world works. What ultimately matters in terms of political power is employing armed men to collect tax revenue. In Europe, the leading state at that is Germany, so Europe today is more or less run by the chancellor of Germany. …
Yet Merkel [by her unilateral admission of huge numbers of migrants] also revealed to the cynical that the E.U. had become to Germany what China and Indonesia were to Imperial Japan: The Greater North Europe Co-Prosperity Sphere. …
According to a E.U. poll, the percentage of E.U. voters citing immigration as one of the top two most pressing issues jumped from 10 percent in 2013 to almost 60 percent in 2015.
Why? Because the European Union proved worse than useless at defending Europe from the hegira of Merkel’s Muslims. The basic question of all politics is: Whose side are you on? In 2015, the European Union gave every indication of not being on the side of Europeans. Is it any surprise that British voters chose to exit in 2016? …
But, to a Brit, what was the point of 1939–1945 if a German chancellor still wound up ruling over Europe?
Trump Holds Big Lead Among White Voters, by John Hinderaker.
[T[he ABC News/Washington Post poll that came out on Sunday … showed Hillary Clinton pulling out to a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among registered voters, and therefore got a lot of play in the press. The poll is an outlier..
The PC media always tries to bluff the audience that their side is well ahead, so their opposition gives up or is demoralized. It usually turns out to be false.
[E]ven in this outlier poll, Trump holds a ten-point lead among white voters, 50%-40% (down from 57%-33% in May!). It is remarkable that even at his low ebb, Trump wins by a near landslide margin among white voters, a majority of the electorate. Not many years ago, that would have assured him of victory.
This explains a lot, especially the high level of racial conflict — which the Democrats need in order to stay electorally competitive.
This is why Democrats are so anxious to “fundamentally transform” the United States through mass immigration from Third World countries. …
This is why the Democrats seek every opportunity to stir up racial conflict. They need to keep minority voters constantly riled up and fearful of a phantom “racism.” The Democrats’ strategy, founded on a cynical exploitation of identity politics, explains the sharp decline in race relations now taking place in the U.S. Racial conflict suits the Democrats. In fact, they need it to have a chance of remaining competitive. This is the sad truth that, more than anything else, has brought our contemporary politics to such a low level.
UPDATE: Quniipiac poll: Democrat Hillary Clinton has 42 percent to Republican Donald Trump’s 40 percent, too close to call.
American voters are deeply divided along gender, racial, age and party lines. Women back Clinton 50 – 33 percent while men back Trump 47 – 34 percent.
White voters back Trump 47 – 34 percent. Black voters back Clinton 91 – 1 percent and Hispanic voters back her 50 – 33 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years old go Democratic 48 – 23 percent, while voters over 65 years old go Republican 51 – 35 percent.
It’s Time for the Elites to Rise Up Against the Ignorant Masses, by James Traub.
The Brexit has laid bare the political schism of our time. It’s not about the left vs. the right; it’s about the sane vs. the mindlessly angry. …
In the late 1960s, elites were in disarray, as they are now — but back then they were fleeing from kids rebelling against their parents’ world; now the elites are fleeing from the parents.
Extremism has gone mainstream. One of the most brazen features of the Brexit vote was the utter repudiation of the bankers and economists and Western heads of state who warned voters against the dangers of a split with the European Union. British Prime Minister David Cameron thought that voters would defer to the near-universal opinion of experts; that only shows how utterly he misjudged his own people.
The issue, at bottom, is globalization. Brexit, Trump, the National Front, and so on show that political elites have misjudged the depth of the anger at global forces and thus the demand that someone, somehow, restore the status quo ante.
Globalization? Maybe it’s Islam, the fury at our elites for being so stupid as to allow mass Islamic immigration, the elite always taking the Muslims side against us, denying the nature of Islam, and calling us racist. Just a thought.
And globalization means culture as well as economics: Older people whose familiar world is vanishing beneath a welter of foreign tongues and multicultural celebrations are waving their fists at cosmopolitan elites. I was recently in Poland, where a far-right party appealing to nationalism and tradition has gained power despite years of undeniable prosperity under a centrist regime. Supporters use the same words again and again to explain their vote: “values and tradition.” They voted for Polishness against the modernity of Western Europe.
Did I say “ignorant”? Yes, I did. It is necessary to say that people are deluded and that the task of leadership is to un-delude them. Is that “elitist”?
Funny. We find you elites unbearably ignorant and arrogant. Incompetent, corrupt and smug too. It’s all relative I suppose.