Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Dead heat on eve of Australian election as final poll points to cliffhanger

Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Dead heat on eve of Australian election as final poll points to cliffhanger, by Mark Kenny.

Fewer than one in five voters think Bill Shorten will win the election, yet around half intend to give his party either their first or second preference, according to the final Fairfax-Ipsos poll on the eve of the election.

The contradiction points to a looming dead heat that has lifted the potential for Saturday’s election to deliver either a shock Labor win, a narrow Coalition victory, or a hung Parliament with no side commanding a majority in the House of Representatives.

A massive 27 per cent of voters remain intent on supporting Greens and other crossbench parties and independents, as support for the major parties threatens to erode further.

Trump pulls into lead in latest Rasmussen poll

Trump pulls into lead in latest Rasmussen poll, by Rasmussen Reports.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 43% of the vote, while Clinton earns 39%. Twelve percent (12%) still like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. …

Last week at this time, it was Clinton 44%, Trump 39%. This is Trump’s highest level of support in Rasmussen Reports’ matchups with Clinton since last October. His support has been hovering around the 40% mark since April, but it remains to be seen whether he’s just having a good week or this actually represents a real move forward among voters.

Boris Johnson announces he will not run for Prime Minister

Boris Johnson announces he will not run for Prime Minister, by Laura Hughes.

Boris Johnson pulls out of Conservative leadership battle. Gove announces he will run for Prime Minister. Theresa May reaches out to eurosceptics as she announces bid. [Johnson] calls for ‘sensible, moderate One Nation Conservative approach,’ says Government must tackle income inequality [and that it is] vital to bring together everyone from Remain and Leave sides.

A handful of Tory MPs reacted with disbelief as news that Mr Johnson would not be seeking the leadership filtered through …

Shame. He was a brilliant and interesting speaker at times, likeable and funny.

And now Mr Gove has destroyed Boris Johnson, writes James Kirkup.

By suggesting ever so politely, that Mr Johnson cannot provide real leadership or build a united team, Mr Gove went for his former ally’s jugular.

The idea that affable Boris is actually divisive, selfish and unreliable is Mr Johnson’s biggest weakness in this contest.

UPDATE: Steven Neil suspects that the real story is Johnson is too right wing for the rotten Tory Party and can now wait for Britain’s Angela Merkel, Theresa May, to lead the party towards collapse. He will then be in a position to pick up the pieces. The bottom line is that UKIP’s work is only just beginning — treason by the elites continues regardless of the referendum result.

The great Conservative renewal is now underway

The great Conservative renewal is now underway, by James Forsyth.

The Tory party is in a deeply emotional state. … Post-referendum, Remain and Leave Tory MPs still meet in separate groups. Some think this indicates that the leadership fight could become the most divisive in recent history. …

In the coming days, Boris will come under pressure to set out his vision for post-Brexit Britain. I understand that he and Michael Gove have three principles. First, they want democratic control over immigration policy — a rejection of the EU principle of free movement of people. Second, they no longer want the UK to be subject to the European Court of Justice. Third, they want access to — but not membership of — the single market. …

Tory pragmatists, including several Remain ministers I’ve spoken to, acknowledge that [Boris Johnson] goes a long way to neutralising Ukip as a threat to the Tories. It would be perilous for them to select someone who had campaigned against Brexit as their leader because Farage and co could claim that referendum voters had been betrayed. They would shout that it was all an establishment stitch-up and that people needed to vote Ukip to make a proper Brexit happen. …

A staple of [Boris’] referendum stump speech was that the ‘EU is a corporate stitch-up’ contributing to the growing pay gap between CEOs and workers. As one of Boris’s closest allies puts it: ‘We need a government that understands this: in the last 15 years if you had capital you made out like a bandit. If you had to rely on your own labour, you didn’t.’ … Another pillar of a Johnson government would be social mobility. …

At the same time, the Labour party is in meltdown: it is almost impossible to see how the dispute between Jeremy Corbyn and the bulk of the parliamentary Labour party can be resolved.

hat-tip Stephen Neil